The hottest Shanghai rubber market trend is relati

The trend of Shanghai Jiao is relatively resistant to decline, and the market continues to be weak and volatile.

the direct reason for the decline of the trend market in April is the resistance of the downstream to high prices, and the core factor is the country's continuous macro-control policy. The influence of these two factors continues. There are signs of a shift in foreign monetary policy, which will gradually deepen the suppression of the overall commodity. The large fundamentals of Shanghai Jiao itself are still biased to benefit, which will limit the excessive decline of prices. On the whole, under the influence of bad monetary policy, Shanghai Jiao fell with the overall commodity market. However, due to its good fundamentals, the trend will be more resistant to decline than other commodities. We believe that Shanghai Jiao will continue to be weak and volatile in May

part I market review in April

the trend of Shanghai rubber industry has been ups and downs this month. After the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, the Japanese rubber market and the external market rose sharply in the first half of April, so Shanghai rubber market rose sharply after the holiday. On the first trading day after the festival, the main contract of Shanghai Jiaotong rose 1305 points. Although the central bank raised the deposit and loan interest rates of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points again, the interest rate hike was entirely expected by market participants. The negative impact had been digested in advance, and Futures and stock markets ended up sharply. On the other hand, the inventory of Tianjiao warehouse receipts in Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to a historical low in the same period; The floods in Thailand caused damage to rubber trees in the production area, and official statistics showed that more than 8000 hectares of rubber (31270,5.00,0.02%) forests were destroyed, which had a great impact on the supply in the next few years; In addition, when the Thai songgan Festival and Yunnan water splashing festival were held in that week, the production areas had holidays, and the spot supply was reduced. Recently, the supply shortage situation has been intensifying, the domestic automobile production and sales in March increased year-on-year, and the dollar plummeted last weekend, dragged down by the loose monetary policy of the United States and the possible shutdown of the government. Stimulated by many positive factors, Shanghai Jiaotong jumped higher than 37000 yuan/ton in the morning trading on April 11 and continued to rise, reaching a maximum of 37985 yuan/ton

however, under the pressure of slowing demand and sensitive macro policies, profit bulls sharply reduced their positions and left the market. Shanghai Jiao quickly fell from the high level to near 37000 yuan/ton, closing in the form of a cross star. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, in the first quarter of 2011, China imported 470000 tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, and the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao free trade zone increased instead of decreasing, to about 150000 tons; In addition, due to the withdrawal of a series of stimulus policies, the growth rate of domestic automobile production and sales slowed down in the first quarter, coupled with the lingering aftermath of the earthquake in Japan, the resumption of work of Japanese automobile enterprises was difficult, and the supply of parts and components was urgent, resulting in a sharp decline in automobile production in Japan and other regions. The slowdown in downstream demand and the drop in the temperature of the auto market made the market less bullish, and Shanghai Jiaotong began to enter the downward channel; On the other hand, the recent macro pressure is also a major factor to suppress the decline of Shanghai Jiaotong. On the 12th, the central bank issued 6516, broken parking: the sample can stop or return to the initial position at the moment of breaking, and a one-year central bank note of 0 billion yuan can be returned. At the same time, a positive repurchase operation of 140 billion yuan is carried out in 28 days. However, compared with the release of 911billion yuan of funds due in the open market in April, the liquidity recovery is obviously insufficient. In addition, China's CPI in March rose by more than 5 year-on-year, It hit a 32 month high, increasing the possibility that the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio again in April, which is the fifth sub station of the center in China or raising interest rates, which is bad for the rubber market

the direct reason for the decline of the trend market in April is the resistance of the downstream to high prices, and the core factor is the country's continuous macro-control policy. The influence of these two factors continues. There are signs of a shift in foreign monetary policy, which will gradually deepen the repression of the overall commodity. Tianjiao's own large fundamentals are still biased towards bullish, which will limit the excessive decline of prices. Overall, Tianjiao fell with the overall commodity market under the influence of bad monetary policy. However, due to its good fundamentals, the trend will be more resistant to decline than other commodities. We believe that Shanghai Jiao will continue to be weak and volatile in May

Figure 1: the K-line chart of the 1109 trend of Shanghai Jiao main contract

figure shows the K-line chart of the 1109 trend of Shanghai Jiao main contract. (picture source: Boyi master Changjiang futures)

Part II fundamental analysis

I. production area situation

from the fundamental point of view, Thailand and other major natural rubber producing countries have entered the low production period, and the domestic rubber supply situation has reappeared. However, with the downward correction of Japanese TOCOM rubber futures and the drag of factors worried about tensions in the Middle East, rubber prices fell sharply in the first half of this month. Subsequently, affected by the Japanese earthquake, the market panic increased, and the market was worried about the rubber demand in the short term, which deepened the further decline of the market rubber price. However, the global rubber supply in the off-season did not stop the falling rubber price. Subsequently, Thailand and other rubber producing countries implemented the intervention policy of suspending the export of their domestic rubber to curb the decline of rubber price. At the same time, the fear of short-term rubber demand slowdown caused by the Japanese earthquake was relieved, and the rubber price began to rebound after the previous sharp decline. Positive fundamentals also boosted rubber prices. However, with the wide fluctuation of prices, the purchasing demand of downstream factories is low, so wait and see. The market transaction atmosphere was light, and the spot price also began to consolidate weakly

the market panic caused by the earthquake in Japan led to a sharp fall in the price of raw materials in Thailand in the short term. Because the production of natural rubber accounts for 10% of the Thai population, the impact is too extensive, which led to administrative intervention by the Thai government. The Thai government plans to stabilize the price of raw materials above 80 or even 120 baht to protect the interests of rubber farmers. Although the need for protection was lost after the rapid rebound of prices in the end, the increasingly high protection prices of the Thai government showed that the producing areas resisted low prices. If prices fall sharply in the later period, it is bound to lead to new intervention measures by the Thai government, which is the best guarantee for stabilizing bull confidence

from the perspective of the price difference between domestic and international markets, both domestic futures and spot prices are significantly lower than overseas prices, and the upside down is still the same, which will limit the decline of domestic futures prices

Table 1: market of production area (unit: 10000 tons)

Products

pending order quantity (tons)/average pending order price (yuan/ton)

3 1

4.. 8

4.. 15

4.. 22

4.. 29

production area

full latex

-

-

<189

231

Hainan

average price

-

-

concentrated latex

106

81

30

-

-

average price

27850

-

Yunnan

concentrated latex

-

-

<50

810

average price

./p>

-

-

3

whole milk Glue

660

760

470

1185

280

average price

10 /P>

average price

42000

42000

37000

5 # standard glue

-

-

-

-

<20

average price

-

-