The hottest Shanghai Rubber inventory continues to

Shanghai Rubber inventory continues to increase, and the rubber market will usher in a second bottom

affected by the downward trend of crude oil and gold, and the gradual recovery of natural rubber supply, the internal and external rubber prices fell in August and completed the first bottom. The author believes that with the promotion of internal and external factors, the rubber market will have a bottoming process in the first ten days of September, and will usher in a restorative rise in the second ten days of September, and continue its tortuous bull market path

the inventory of Shanghai Jiao continues to increase

at the moment when the 809 contract, which has been tossed for nearly two months, is about to usher in its "premature death", whether it is speculative short positions, or long positions of agricultural reclamation and Zhejiang funds will be gradually reduced due to the rules of the exchange in early September (next week). Although the inventory of Shanghai Jiao stock has shown an upward trend for six consecutive weeks, as of yesterday's close, there are still 28818 positions and 14409 unilateral positions, that is, short sellers need to hand over 72045 tons of spot goods. Excluding 45460 tons from the exchange, it is obviously impossible to make up 26585 tons of inventory at the time of delivery. Therefore, this week, especially the improvement of dynamic accuracy requirements, will be the time for speculative long and short parties to significantly reduce their positions, The futures price will fluctuate significantly, and the surrounding contracts will also be affected

the author believes that whether the Bulls receive all the goods or not, the price will fall sharply. First of all, if all goods are received, between the high price of receiving goods and the sharp rise in foreign spot goods, whether it is the backlog in invisible inventory after receiving goods or the return to futures and become explicit inventory, it will put pressure on the forward November contract and lead to the decline of future prices; Secondly, if only speculative short sellers are forced to cut positions, then long sellers will also hedge away, making their speed prices unable to rise after changes. The 809 contract will fall rapidly and return to a market rational price for smooth delivery. This is also a potential factor for the second bottom of the rubber market in the late stage

the export of Thai Natural Rubber increased

in 2008, the export of Thai natural rubber (including latex) was 1655784 tons; In the same period of 2007, it was 1624847 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 30937 tons, an increase of 1.9%; The month on month increase in July was 43469 tons, an increase of 20%. Affected by the gradual improvement of the weather, at present, Thailand's overall opening and cutting are normal, and the spot supply is sufficient. Even though the spot price has fallen sharply in the early stage, it is still in the high price region as a whole, and the short-term spot price is in a volatile trend, and will continue to decline; As the largest country in Thailand's supply and export, the increase of China's export volume will also affect the decline of Shanghai rubber price. Far from meeting the huge demand of the domestic market

synthetic rubber fell sharply

affected by the fall in oil prices, the external price of raw butadiene fell. The fall in raw material prices led to a sharp decline in the quotations of domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber manufacturers one after another. The fall in manufacturer prices led to the rapid emergence of market selling, and the quotations fell one after another. After the price fell, the market transaction still did not improve. Last week, a new round of quotation reduction was made, The market quotation then fell sharply, and the market transaction was still not smooth. As of the end of last week, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market was about yuan, 26400 yuan/ton compared with the previous high point, down 4. Nearly 3000 yuan after 30 minutes of specimen molding. However, consumer enterprises are bearish in the future and are still waiting for lower prices. It is expected that there is still room for decline in synthetic rubber in the future. It is worth mentioning that after the price of synthetic rubber fell, the price difference with the spot price of natural rubber widened to more than 3000 yuan, and the supporting effect on natural rubber is no longer obvious. Therefore, it is expected that the spot price of natural rubber will follow the downward trend in September

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content