The hottest Shanghai Rubber high-level shock, bewa

Shanghai rubber high volatility beware of early reversal of the trend

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(I) period rubber fluctuated sharply in November

the chart shows the trend of Shanghai Rubber and Japan rubber. (image source: Galaxy futures)

the figure shows the trend of the price difference between Japanese and Shanghai rubber. (picture source: Galaxy futures)

in early November, with the release of automobile data from various countries, the recovery of automobile industry in various countries was good, coupled with many macro inflation expectations, the price of Shanghai Futures soared, and the highest price of main contract 1105 reached 38920 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.12% from the rising platform. However, with China's CPI announced to be 4.4 in October, the central bank began to raise interest rates and implemented a series of tightening policies one after another. The rubber market, which was heavily hyped by funds, fell into panic, and the market funds fled frantically. The position of main contract 1105 decreased from 242500 hands on November 4 to 134500 hands on November 15, and the price also fell by nearly 18% at the deepest point. The general trend of Japanese rubber is the same as that of copper and Chinese rubber, but the trend is slightly mild because it is not affected by the crazy hype of funds in China. The Japanese rubber of stabilizer bar fatigue testing machine rose by 18.83% in early November (the rise of Chinese rubber in the same period was 25.12%) and then fell due to Chinese factors, but the decline was 10.74%, far less than the 18% decline of China when the pressure oil pump was turned on (green). In recent days, with the rebound of the Chinese market, the price difference between domestic futures and Japanese rubber is still within the new price difference range of yuan/ton formed since the second half of this year. Once the market breaks away from this range, investors can consider corresponding arbitrage operations

second, the tight supply and demand situation before the year made the future rubber market unlikely to turn

(I) China's production affected by the climate did not meet expectations

the figure shows the trend of China's rubber production. (picture source: Galaxy futures)

disastrous weather has seriously affected the supply of domestic natural rubber. The drought at the beginning of the year led to the reduction of rubber production in Yunnan. Since September, 2009, the precipitation in Yunnan Province has decreased significantly, and the weather with high temperature and little rain has continued. By the first ten days of March 2010, the precipitation in the province was 59% less than that in the same period of the year, and the precipitation reached the lowest record since 1961. Due to the impact of drought, the opening of rubber planting area in Xishuangbanna was delayed by about 10 to 15 days compared with previous years. The output of some open cutting farms is less than 1/3 of that of normal years. In addition, planting rubber in March every year is an effective measure to increase the yield and improve the overwintering capacity of rubber trees in Yunnan reclamation area. Due to water shortage, this technology cannot be carried out normally, which also has a great impact on rubber production. The continuous drought has affected 2.51 million mu of rubber in Yunnan reclamation area to varying degrees. It is expected that the annual loss of dry rubber production in Yunnan will reach 20000 tons

since October, the torrential rain has affected 2 Serious oil leakage from the oil pressure system has caused a comprehensive impact on Hainan agriculture. The worst affected areas of rubber are mainly located in Wenchang, Qionghai, Wanning and other places in the East. As of October 9, the cutting of natural rubber (private) in Hainan Province has been completely stopped, with a cumulative reduction of more than 10000 tons. In terms of the agricultural reclamation system, the cutting of rubber has been completely stopped, and the cumulative production of dry rubber has been reduced by more than 10000 tons. The planting area of natural rubber in Hainan has reached 6.03 million mu, and the output of dry rubber is 248000 tons, accounting for 47% of the total output of the country. The reduction of production has a serious impact on the national supply

in recent days, Hainan has been hit by rainstorms again. Super typhoon "catfish" will enter the eastern sea of the South China Sea. Hainan Provincial Meteorological Observatory has issued strong wind warnings and super typhoon news, and heavy rain will come again. However, after users set the test data, the rubber production in Hainan in October is mostly the peak of the annual production. By December, the rubber production will soon drop to about 1/3 of that in October. Therefore, many rounds of heavy rainfall in October have seriously affected the annual supply level. Affected by the disastrous weather, the output of Hainan and Yunnan decreased by more than 40000 tons, which was 6% lower than that in 2009. It is difficult to reach the 680000 tons at the beginning of the year

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