The hottest Shanghai rubber may change to equilibr

Shanghai rubber market fluctuated violently or changed to equilibrium

last week, the rubber market fluctuated violently. The main rubber 0907 contract closed the limit twice in the week, and both of them rose and fell on the next day, with a fluctuation range of more than 1000 yuan per ton. Above 13500 yuan/ton, long and short had gathered a large amount of funds to fight, and the position size of main contracts was once expanded to more than 127000 hands. Finally, the short market failed to expand, and the position size of main contracts gradually fell back and was reduced to less than 100000

the differences in the rubber market last week mainly came from the contradiction between technical characteristics and fundamentals. Because, in terms of technology, while Shanghai Jiaotong broke through the yuan/ton structure in the way of trading limit, it also broke through the important resistance of 14000 yuan/ton in the way of trading limit. Therefore, the demand for technical inertia is very strong, and the rising target is also directly at the position of 15000 yuan/ton. However, it is a pity that the strength of the 0907 contract did not get the echo of the spot month 0905 contract, and did not get the echo of the 0909 contract at the same time. In the absence of echo, the 0907 contract fell into a situation of loneliness

at the same time, the strong rise in commodity prices this round is mainly driven by the sharp weakening of the US dollar. After the Federal Reserve announced a huge bond repurchase program of the repurchase Bureau, the dollar experienced a wave of hard decline. The sharp fall of the US dollar has triggered speculation on whether the US dollar will return to the downward trend. The actual situation is that the global economy is still in trouble, and the global demand for the crisis dollar has not fundamentally changed due to the emergence of bad news about the dollar. Therefore, after digesting the bad news about the perfect fed repo, the market is still likely to return to the previous rebound rhythm. The dollar index recovered to the 85 line at the weekend, which also confirms this judgment of the author. It is expected that the US dollar will still have the opportunity to try the first-line 90 in the future market, or fall into horizontal shock consolidation, and the US dollar's incentive to commodity prices is still limited at present

from the perspective of spot, the current domestic spot price of No. 5 glue has not risen synchronously due to the sharp rise in the price of futures glue. At the beginning, the purchase and storage information of Tianjiao (13670, -365.00, -2.60%) came out, so you need to know some standard information when buying. When you contact our desk, the highest quotation of domestic spot glue was still above 14000 yuan/ton, but then the price fell back to the range of yuan/ton, indicating that the domestic spot glue supply should be relatively abundant at this stage. At the same time, the delivery price of 0903 contract was 13600 yuan/ton, which was also significantly lower than 14600 yuan/ton when the State Reserve acquisition news was released. And near the last trading day of 0903 contract, the futures warehouse receipts of Tianjiao of the exchange increased, indicating that the market has a certain interest in delivery above 13600 yuan/ton. Recently, the futures glue price has risen sharply, but the spot glue price has not been affected by this. However, last week, the domestic spot glue market showed signs of activity in the yuan/ton range. In terms of the cost of imported rubber, the price of No. 3 cigarette imported from Thailand to the Chinese port on March 26 was about 1510 yuan/ton. If the zero tariff of composite rubber was used, the price of Thai rubber entering the Chinese market was around 12100 yuan/ton. Therefore, the price of imported rubber obviously still had a strong restraining force on domestic rubber. In addition, from a seasonal perspective, after April, the main production areas of natural rubber in China will change from the off-season to the peak season, so the rise of domestic rubber production will also restrain the rise of natural rubber prices

from the comparison of the above factors, the fundamental situation of Tianjiao does not support that the price of Tianjiao can make great achievements above 14000 yuan/ton. The failure of two forced upward attacks indicates that the upward attack of 15000 yuan/ton of rubber price in the short term lacks the support of the spot market. Therefore, it is natural for the rubber price to fall below 14000 yuan/ton in the future. However, it is also unrealistic for the rubber market to expect a sharp decline. The warmth of the domestic automobile market in the first quarter is bound to support the rubber price above 12000 yuan/ton

the author believes that the future rubber price will be transferred to the range of 12500 yuan/ton - 14000 yuan/ton. With more than 10 years of testing money in the new era, Jinan has been in line with "Based on innovation, short funds increase and decrease again. After the divergence of the market decreases, the fluctuation is expected to make the inspection and unpacking of goods convenient and fast, and change to equilibrium. The short-term rubber price still has the opportunity to explore the possibility of 13000 yuan/ton, because the cost of domestic rubber deviating from imported rubber is too high. In operation, you can choose high short, or wait for full adjustment before choosing long opportunities.

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