The hottest Shanghai rubber is expected to hit a n

Shanghai Jiao is expected to set a new high this month

at present, the main contract 0911 of Shanghai Jiao entered the box shock adjustment after hitting a high of 16080 yuan in early June. On June 25, after exploring the important psychological price of 14600 yuan/ton of national collection and storage, it continued to rise on June 26, rising 225 yuan/ton to close at 15535 yuan/ton. The trend of Tokyo Jiao is basically the same as that of Shanghai Jiao, from the lowest 99.8 yen/kg in December 2008 to the highest 183.2 yen/kg in 2009, with an increase of 83.6%. After entering June, due to the appreciation of the yen against the US dollar and the weak domestic demand in Japan, the trend of Tokyo Jiao was significantly weaker than that of Shanghai Jiao, and the price difference between the two places further expanded to 4295 yuan/ton. However, considering the 20% tariff and 17% value-added tax, it does not have the conditions for arbitrage at present

from the macro situation, the problem of excess liquidity at home and abroad still exists. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, governments of all countries have issued rescue plans of different scales, implemented very loose monetary policies, and injected huge amounts of funds into the financial system and market. In March 2009, the Federal Reserve announced that it would purchase US $300billion of long-term US Treasury bonds and up to US $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie and Freddie Mac in the next few months. At the same time, the central banks of Japan and European countries also bought bonds to increase the money supply in financial markets. In the first half of this year, it is a foregone conclusion that China's new credit exceeded 6 trillion yuan, and the new loans in 2008 were only 4 trillion yuan. It can be seen that the market liquidity is abundant

on the basis of natural rubber, seasonal factors suppress the rise of rubber price. From the supply situation in late May, the market volume of new rubber in Southeast Asia is still insufficient, and the continuous rainfall in the early stage has brought some obstacles to rubber cutting. Due to the impact of dry weather and comprehensive and multi-level energy-saving technological transformation, the supply of rubber is tight and the holiday in April is 4 Loading speed: more than 5 ± 0.5 kg/S. in April this year, the rubber export of Thailand decreased by 16.5% compared with the same period last year to 176000 tons. Although the rubber farmers in the country had resumed rubber cutting operations before late April, excessive rainfall affected the time of rubber cutting. After entering June, the rubber production began to rise, and the price of Thailand's local wholesale market began to fall in late June. From the perspective of the cycle of the year, the monthly new rubber listing volume will increase significantly, while the downstream tire production will enter a relatively low season. Therefore, the monthly rubber price in most years is easy to fall but difficult to rise, and will remain until the second half of the year. This will put a lot of pressure on the rubber price, suppress the space for the rise of the rubber price, and seasonal factors may appear in the later stage

in July, on the one hand, it is the inflation expectation caused by the flooding liquidity in the market, on the other hand, it is the suppression of the rubber price by the large number of new rubber listed in the peak season of rubber cutting. The traditional method of these two forces, the wrestling between rapid prototyping technology, will control the medium and short-term trend of rubber price. The confirmation of the economic situation will point out the direction for the medium and long-term rubber price. Considering the strong demand in China, the decline of the US dollar index, the firmness of crude oil prices and the macroeconomic data of the second quarter to be released in mid July, the rubber price is expected to remain strong in the short term. The reading in July is accurate, and Shanghai rubber is expected to refresh the previous high point driven by funds

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