The hottest Shanghai rubber may be suppressed firs

  • Detail

Next year, Shanghai Jiao may first suppress and then increase

near the end of the year, due to the trend of supply in the Tianjiao market, while the demand in the same period remained low, the supply was phased in a relative surplus, and the superposition of macro adverse factors led to a weak downward pattern in the recent Shanghai Jiao market. Taking into account the impact of increased losses in the tire industry this year, tight funds and sluggish downstream demand, the purchase and stock up market of winter storage before the Spring Festival will also be postponed

next year, the supply and demand of natural rubber will be slightly relaxed

from the perspective of supply and demand for interior parts, the global production of natural rubber in 2011 will increase by 5.4% to 10.96 million tons, and the demand will increase by 4.6% to 11.08 million tons. The supply and demand of natural rubber will basically maintain a tight balance. Considering that the new rubber has been put into production before, the cutting area and the per unit yield of rubber trees will be increased, so the supply and demand side of natural rubber will be slightly relaxed next year

in recent years, small rubber producing countries such as Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia have accelerated the pace of planting natural rubber. The planting area of natural rubber has increased at an alarming rate and is gradually becoming an important exporter of natural rubber. The Vietnam Rubber Association estimated that Vietnam's output in 2012 would increase by 2.6% next year, approaching 800000 tons, setting a record high for the domestic rubber volume. This year, the planting area in Myanmar reached 480000 hectares, an increase of 100% over the expected growth. Next year, the production of natural rubber in Myanmar will also further increase. In 2011, the planting area of Cambodia exceeded 180000 hectares, and the rubber production was 42000 tons, with an annual growth rate of 30%. It is expected that by 2020, the total planting area will increase to 300000 hectares, of which about 235000 hectares will start to produce rubber, and the annual rubber production is about 290000 tons

Ming 2. Inconveniences of traditional zigzag experiment: (1) the zigzag experiment position of the oil cylinder mounted universal experimental machine is relatively high. In, the output of natural rubber in the world's major rubber producing countries will continue to increase, while the major consumer countries -- China and India have reduced the import of natural rubber, and some producers have turned to synthetic rubber. In the later stage, the demand for natural rubber will decrease, and the pattern of oversupply will become the normal situation of the natural rubber market next year, The upward space of Shanghai Jiao futures price will be significantly restrained

domestic automobile production and sales may sell less vegetables by one person on the roadside next year, with negative growth

without any policies to encourage automobile consumption, the probability of negative growth in the growth rate of domestic automobile production and sales next year is high, mainly for the following four reasons

first, affected by the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, some hot money will return to developed economic markets next year, emerging markets will be tested by capital, and the global economic downturn will also slow down the pace of people's demand for cars; Secondly, the domestic automobile market has developed rapidly in recent years. As of November, the number of motor vehicles in the country has reached 223million and 104million. Due to the traffic congestion and the shortage of parking spaces in economically developed cities, the improvement speed is far from what people expect, which will restrict the consumption enthusiasm of car buyers next year; Thirdly, as of the first 11 months of this year, the domestic auto inventory continued to increase, and the newly increased inventory of auto dealers was about 500000 vehicles compared with last year. Considering that the retail sales of cars next year will not exceed the level of the same period this year, while the wholesale sales may exceed this year, because the inventory of cars next year will continue to increase. In the context of high inventory, some auto manufacturers will also slow down the growth of production and sales; Finally, the continuous rise in fuel costs, coupled with the increased traffic control in some cities and the implementation of vehicle restriction measures, will also increase the expectation of negative growth in the production and sales of the car market next year. And in the context of the domestic car market production and sales are not optimistic, it will be difficult to promote the upward momentum of rubber prices

looking forward to the Shanghai Rubber Market in 2012, under the pressure of the European debt maturity, the economic recession, the reduced demand for natural rubber and the high inventory of rubber, the natural rubber market in the first quarter may continue to be weak, with the target below 20000. However, we need to pay attention to the final solution to the European debt problem next year and whether the loose policies of emerging countries to maintain growth can be introduced. At the same time, we also need to leave money to Chengli and turn to the marketing department. Whether the Italian rubber producing countries will jointly intervene in the price of natural rubber and whether the National Reserve Bureau will issue a rubber receiving policy to stabilize the price of rubber. The author believes that the operation pattern of Shanghai Jiaotong next year is likely to be a trend of first low and then high, first restraining and then rising

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI